Justice Malala is wrong, the ANC will not recall President Jacob Zuma

Justice Malala is wrong, the ANC will not recall President Jacob Zuma irrespective of the outcome at the Constitutional Court. Even more so, the secret ballot may have the opposite effect. What may seem like a foregone conclusion is anything but. The lessons that came with the removal of Thabo Mbeki are fresher in the minds of the ANC leaders than they are in the minds of the opposition and the media.

President Jacob Zuma has appeared largely unfazed by the predictions of his future because he knows better than most of us what it will take to remove him and the price the ANC will pay for such action. The last thing that could remove President Jacob Zuma is the secret ballot, much less his ANC.

The no confidence vote has very little to do with fear exposure but trust that even in the face of deep divisions the “enemy” will not prevail. I can tell you now that to all probability Pravin Gordhan and Mcebisi Jonas may vote against President Jacob Zuma out of bitterness but even they know better than to satisfy misplaced anger ahead of the party.

In fact President Jacob Zuma may not even be removed after the elective conference because you can deem a single occurrence as necessary but if the same event occurs twice it becomes a pattern, and that poses a far greater danger than the opposition.

For better for worse, Justice Malala is wrong. President Jacob Zuma will remain in power through to 2018, even to 2019 and the ANC knows the importance of this. Also considering the importance of the KwaZulu-Natal votes, it remains firmly in the best interest of the ANC to keep President Jacob Zuma in power even as they condemn him.

Cyril Ramaphosa may be popular with the media, the capital and the “newly educated” but he will struggle to woo the staunch ANC supporters who refuse t give on President Jacob Zuma. Much less the grandfathers, grandmothers and the old school middle class who are not Twitter.

Unless the ANC is going for a Kamikaze (Suicide) mission over President Jacob Zuma, chances are they will stay put and suck it up.

The so called 50 MPs who are prepared to vote against President Jacob Zuma do not exist. 5 at best and probably not the vocal ones.

 

Mark

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